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Technical & Price Action

Death Cross (Bearish MA Crossover)

Death Cross (Bearish MA Crossover) is a Technical & Price Action screen. It checks every NSE-listed stock against 1 condition computed from nightly data, after excluding heavily pledged promoters and very small market caps. This page explains the rule, each figure and its source. It lists no stocks and is not advice.

What it does and why

The death cross — when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average — is the logical inverse of the golden crossover. It signals that short-term price momentum has shifted decisively below the long-term trend, confirming that the downtrend is no longer a temporary dip but a structural shift. While the signal is lagging by nature (the cross occurs after momentum has already weakened), its value comes from its self-fulfilling property: institutional risk managers use it as a hard rule for reducing equity exposure, so the cross itself triggers selling that can extend the downtrend. This screener is a risk-management tool for existing holders and a short-side signal for active traders.

The rule, step by step

A stock must satisfy every condition below. Conditions are grouped under the pillar they test.

Trend Exhaustion

  • 50-Day SMA < 200-Day SMA

Hard excludes

  • Promoter pledge above 30% of the promoter's holding
  • Market cap below ₹500 crore
Passes the screen

Ranked by 200-Day SMA − 50-Day SMA, highest first.

The figures it uses

50-Day SMA

Used in a condition
Formula
Simple average of the last 50 daily closes
Input fields
close
Source of record
Upstox · public historical candles, NSE_EQ|{ISIN} (no auth)FinEdge · /api/v1/daily-quotes/{symbol} (fallback)
Corporate actions
Adjusted for corporate actions before use
Refresh
Recomputed nightly (06:30 IST job); rows older than 3 days are excluded from screens

200-Day SMA

Used in a condition
Formula
Simple average of the last 200 daily closes
Input fields
close
Source of record
Upstox · public historical candles, NSE_EQ|{ISIN} (no auth)FinEdge · /api/v1/daily-quotes/{symbol} (fallback)
Corporate actions
Adjusted for corporate actions before use
Refresh
Recomputed nightly (06:30 IST job); rows older than 3 days are excluded from screens

Promoter Pledge

Hard exclude input
Formula
Pledged shares as a share of the promoter's own holding: pledgedSharesPct ÷ promoter holding × 100; blank when the quarter is not listed
Input fields
pledgedSharesPct, promoter holding
Source of record
FinEdge · /api/v1/shareholdings/summary/{symbol}?period=quarterlyFinEdge · /api/v1/shareholdings/pattern/{symbol}?period=quarterly
Refresh
Recomputed nightly (06:30 IST job); rows older than 3 days are excluded from screens

Market Cap

Hard exclude input
Formula
Close × paid-up equity shares ÷ 10,000,000 (₹ crore)
Input fields
close, paidUpEquityShares
Source of record
Upstox · public historical candles, NSE_EQ|{ISIN} (no auth)FinEdge · /api/v1/daily-quotes/{symbol} (fallback)FinEdge · /api/v1/shareholdings/summary/{symbol}?period=quarterly
Corporate actions
Adjusted for corporate actions before use
Refresh
Recomputed nightly (06:30 IST job); rows older than 3 days are excluded from screens

What each figure means

50-Day Moving Average (₹)

The simple average of the last 50 trading days' closing prices. Represents the intermediate-term trend of the stock.

In a death cross, the 50-day MA is below the 200-day MA. The larger the gap, the more entrenched the downtrend. If the gap is widening, the trend is accelerating downward.

High is better

200-Day Moving Average (₹)

The simple average of the last 200 trading days' closing prices. Represents the long-term trend — the institutional baseline for whether a stock is in a secular uptrend or downtrend.

The 200-day MA is the most widely watched trend indicator globally. When the current price is significantly below the 200-day MA, institutional algorithms automatically flag this as a downtrend.

High is better

50-Day MA vs 200-Day MA Spread (%)

The percentage by which the 50-day MA is below the 200-day MA. A negative value means the death cross condition is active. A value of -5% means the 50-day MA is 5% below the 200-day MA.

A freshly triggered death cross (spread near 0%) is an early signal; a deeply negative spread means the downtrend is already well-established. For timing purposes, stocks where the spread is less negative (closer to 0% from below) are earlier in the cycle.

Low is better

Try the rule

Type hypothetical values to see which conditions they satisfy. These are not real stocks and nothing here is stored.

  • 50-Day SMA < 200-Day SMA—

Enter values to begin

A worked example

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Evidence

What the harness measured

In the past data we checked, we could not tell the stocks this screen picked apart from the ones it left out. We looked back over 64 months. Each month we checked whether the stocks this screen picked did better, over the following month (21 trading days), than the stocks it didn't pick. We score that from -1 (the picks always did worse) to +1 (always did better); 0 means no pattern. This screen scored -0.0004. As a measurement, the score is essentially zero. If the screen had no real edge, a score at least this far from zero would show up about 94 in 100 by luck alone. That does not mean the screen is wrong; it still works for narrowing a list of stocks by your own rules.

This is a record of the past, not a prediction.

Information coefficient-0.0004-1 to +1; 0 means no pattern
IC p-value0.945how often luck alone would do this
Net Sharpe (out-of-sample)-0.14per year, after estimated trading costs
Deflated Sharpe probability0.045Deflated against 2 trialsthe chance it truly beats holding the index, after marking down for flukes
Annual turnover3.9how much of the portfolio is replaced each year
Out-of-sample months64months we checked, using only what was known at the time
Universe:
Today's Nifty 500 constituents (survivorship-biased: delisted names are absent)
Data window:
2019-04-01 → 2026-09-25
IC basis:
Full-sample (not out-of-sample)
Portfolio:
rebalanced monthly, 21 trading days, net of estimated costs, for a fixed position size per stock
Versions:
qp21f-nifty500-2.0.0 / 0.1.0 / 2.0.0
Record:
13521e7c-67a

Live monitoring

Not yet testable — 5 of 6 points needed to chart a rolling information coefficient.

  • 5-day IC 0.026 · signal date 2026-10-13 · n 4477
  • 22-day IC -0.027 · signal date 2026-09-10 · n 3881

This is a historical, statistical measurement produced by FINOME TECHNOLOGIES PVT LTD's research harness on past data. It is not a prediction, and past results do not indicate future results. The universe is today's Nifty 500 constituents, so the sample is affected by survivorship bias. It describes how a screen's selections behaved in the past and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation.

Run this screen

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Rule version 1.0.0

Questions

How is this screen calculated?
Each stock is tested against 1 condition using figures computed from exchange prices and company filings, adjusted for corporate actions. The rule is versioned; this page shows version 1.0.0.
How often does the screen update?
The figures are recomputed once each trading day after the nightly compute. A stock whose figures are more than three days old is left out rather than shown stale.
Is this investment advice?
No. This is educational material describing a screening method. It does not recommend any security and does not consider your circumstances.
Educational use only — GoQuant is a research tool. This page explains a screening method and is not a recommendation. Investment advice is provided by FINOME TECHNOLOGIES PVT LTD (AltQube), SEBI-registered Investment Adviser, registration no. INA000018373, under a signed advisory agreement and after a risk profile. Past performance is not indicative of future results.